SPECIAL REPORT ON GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5ºC / INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, December 2018, SUMMARY STATEMENT FOR AFRICA

From Chapter 3, p. 197, Box 3.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes,

Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced the dramatic consequences of climate extremes becoming more frequent and more intense over the past decades (Paeth et al., 2010; Taylor et al., 2017).

In order to join international efforts to reduce climate change, all African countries signed the Paris Agreement. In particular, through their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), they committed to contribute to the global effort to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with the aim to constrain global temperature increases to ‘well below 2°C’ and to pursue efforts to limit warming to ‘1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. The target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is useful for conveying the urgency of the situation. However, it focuses the climate change debate on a temperature threshold (Section 3.3.2), while the potential impacts of these global warming levels on key sectors at local to regional scales, such as agriculture, energy and health, remain uncertain in most regions and counries of Africa (Sections 3.3.3, 3.3.4, 3.3.5 and 3.3.6).

Weber et al. (2018) found that at regional scales, temperature increases in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase (at global warming of 1.5°C and at 2°C; see Section 3.3.2 for further background and analyses of climate model projections).

Even if the mean global temperature anomaly is kept below 1.5°C, regions between 15°S and 15°N are projected to experience an increase in hot nights, as well as longer and more frequent heatwaves (e.g., Kharin et al., 2018). Increases would be even larger if the global mean temperature were to reach 2°C of global warming, with significant changes in the occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes in all sub-Saharan regions (Sections 3.3.1 and 3.3.2; Figures 3.4, 3.5 and 3.8).

West and Central Africa are projected to display particularly large increases in the number of hot days, both at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming (Section 3.3.2). This is due to the relatively small interannual present-day variability in this region, which implies that climate-change signals can be detected earlier there (Section 3.3.2; Mahlstein et al., 2011).

Projected changes in total precipitation exhibit uncertainties, mainly in the Sahel (Section 3.3.3 and Figure 3.8; Diedhiou et al., 2018). In the Guinea Coast and Central Africa, only a small change in total precipitation is projected, although most models (70%) indicate a decrease in the length of wet periods and a slight increase in heavy rainfall. Western Sahel is projected by most models (80%) to experience the strongest drying, with a significant increase in the maximum length of dry spells (Diedhiou et al., 2018). Above 2°C, this region could become more vulnerable to drought and could face serious food security issues (Cross-Chapter Box 6 and Section 3.4.6 in this chapter; Salem et al., 2017; Parkes et al., 2018). West Africa has thus been identified as a climate-change hotspot with negative impacts from climate change on crop yields and production (Cross-Chapter Box 6 and Section 3.4.6; Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Palazzo et al., 2017). Despite uncertainty in projections for precipitation in West Africa, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, robust evidence of yield loss might emerge. This yield loss is expected to be mainly driven by increased mean temperature, while potential wetter or drier conditions – as well as elevated CO2 concentrations – could modulate this effect (Roudier et al., 2011; see also Cross-Chapter Box 6 and Section 3.4.6).

Using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) scenarios from 25 regional climate models (RCMs) forced with different general circulation models (GCMs), Klutse et al. (2018) noted a decrease in mean rainfall over West Africa in models with stronger warming for this region at 1.5°C of global warming (Section 3.3.4). Mba et al. (2018) used a similar approach and found a lack of consensus in the changes in precipitation over Central Africa (Figure 3.8 and Section 3.3.4), although there was a tendency towards a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD).Over southern Africa, models agree on a positive sign of change for temperature, with temperature rising faster at 2°C (1.5°C–2.5°C) as compared to 1.5°C (0.5°C–1.5°C) of global warming.

Areas in the south-western region, especially in South Africa and parts of Namibia and Botswana, are expected to experience the largest increases in temperature (Section 3.3.2; Engelbrecht et al., 2015; Maúre et al., 2018). The western part of southern Africa is projected to become drier with increasing drought frequency and number of heatwaves towards the end of the 21st century (Section 3.3.4; Engelbrecht et al., 2015; Dosio, 2017; Maúre et al., 2018). At 1.5°C, a robust signal of precipitation reduction is found over the Limpopo basin and smaller areas of the Zambezi basin in Zambia, as well as over parts of Western Cape in South Africa, while an increase is projected over central and western South Africa, as well as in southern Namibia (Section 3.3.4). At 2°C, the region is projected to face robust precipitation decreases of about 10–20% and increases in the number of CDD, with longer dry spells projected over Namibia, Botswana, northern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia. Conversely, the number of CWD is projected to decrease, with robust signals over Western Cape Maúre et al., 2018). Projected reductions in stream flow of 5–10% in the Zambezi River basin have been associated with increased evaporation and transpiration rates resulting from a rise in temperature ( Section 3.3.5; Kling et al., 2014), with issues for hydroelectric power across the region of southern Africa.

For Eastern Africa, Osima et al. (2018) found that annual rainfall projections show a robust increase in precipitation over Somalia and a less robust decrease over central and northern Ethiopia (Section 3.3.3). The number of CDD and CWD are projected to increase and decrease, respectively (Section 3.3.4). These projected changes could impact the agricultural and water sectors in the region (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter and Section 3.4.6).

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